RESEARCH PROPOSAL on MEASURING ACTUAL EFFECTIVENESS of TERRORISM

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Measuring the actual effectiveness of terrorism: findings from empirical research on the tactical and strategic outcomes of uses of terrorism

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A research proposal submitted to the department of ….., school of……, in partial fulfilment for the course……, Research Methods

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©October, 2020

ABSTRACT

Terrorism is a term that has problems in definition. World scholars have not come to a consensus since the time the first case of terrorism attack was witnessed. This act of violence has since caused a lot of destruction that has made many governemnts collapse. Terrorist groups have emerged  fueled by political and religious ideologies. These radicals use tactics and strategies that are effective to cause panic and destructions. However, there has been no empirical research finding to measure effectiveness of these approaches. The dataset used by researchers to find effectiveness of the findings have had some implications which make the results invalid. There is need to conduct research which uses GTD data source and has many variables from different incidents of terrorist attacks. If this research is conducted, it would solve the  problem terrorism threats. The effective findings will ensure that governments form and test effective countermeasures to combat the militants strategies and tactics. The main aim of this study is to measure the actual effectiveness of terrorism through findings from empirical research on the tactical and strategic outcomes of uses of terrorism. A longitudinal experiment design will be used in this research. This research uses a quantitative data collection method with large sample size. The results expected after this study are actual effective measure from the empirical research findings that solve the problem.

Keywords

Terrorism; GTD data source;  radicals; terrorist groups; empirical research; countermeasures; militants;

Chapter One: INTRODUCTION

1.1: Background of study

A problem exists where measuring actual effectiveness of terrorism is drawn from domestic and transnational database instead of GTD database. The two data source has insufficient information to do research and make draw valid answers on the measure of actual effectiveness from the empirical findings. There is need to use GTD data source and empirical research findings about the tactical and strategic outcomes used by terrorist. These outcomes will give clear information on measuring actual effectiveness of terrorism since the many variables present in the dataset can apply to nay research question. This research will be useful by both the people and government to predict future militant threats. International governments and internal security can use the data to advance their mitigation measures on combating terrorist threats. It will also show areas where terrorists strike. The aim of this research is to measuring the actual effectiveness of terrorism by drawing findings from empirical research on the tactical and strategic outcomes uses of terrorism. This objective brings us to our

1.2: Problem Statement

There are many gaps in finding actual effectiveness of terrorism from empirical findings. The problem arises from authors relying on domestic and transnational data to make conclusions. . Terrorist have no clear procedures in which they use to operate during attacks and threats. Their tactics and strategies confuse nations and remained a mystery up to date.  Lack of qualified personals to decipher their tactics and strategies makes terrorism actual effectiveness unknown. Terrorism databases on terrorist attacks remain scattered all over the world due to lack of consensus on definition of terrorism and a terrorist. Improper definitions make data to be collected and stored about threats attacks which could not be terrorist oriented. Use of transnational databases make conclusions from empirical evidence makes the results not effective. The people might not be in any terrorist group and their actions may be due to drugs influence and psychological problems. However, this data get recorded in domestic and transnational databases. This information is then used to do analysis giving false effectiveness, tactics and strategies employed by terrorists.

1.3: Justification and significance of study

The problem associated in the research on measuring actual effectiveness is use of other strategies which does not include strategies and tactical outcomes to measure actual effectiveness.  The scholars lack of empirical findings makes their methods ineffective. Improper organization of terrorist events data and lack of consensus in defining terrorism makes the data useless during the analysis of empirical findings. There are some scholars who use the choice of weapon selected   and group size to measure effectiveness of terrorism. Koehler-Derrick & Milton (2019) argues that more weapons and terrorists makes them select the right firearms which can be lethal and make their terrorist attack effective. They further argue that firearms are better than explosives causing mass destruction when used by militants. Another scholar thinks that suicide bombers are more lethal to cause mass casualties than any other tactic ever used by terrorists. This method according to Piazza (2020) is effective and able to give militants specific advantages that can cause great damages than the one caused by conventional terrorists. Their research relies on ITERATE databases to conduct their empirical research that is limited to transnational terrorism to measure effectiveness (Berkebile, 2017).

However, evidence drawn from empirical research using GTD database includes both domestic and transnational data. The data is frequently updated and contains many variables which are useful in drawing valid information. This study is important because the data source has many events and 98 variables which are vital for various number of research questions. The measure of actual effectiveness does not depend on type of weapon, and militant size but on the outcomes of the tactics and strategies employed. Findings from empirical research conducted using GTD databases will give unbiased answers to measure actual effectiveness of terrorism. Using this method makes this research more superior and effective to solve the problem of finding actual measure of terrorism. If this research will be conducted, it will provide  clear information on measuring actual effectiveness of terrorism from empirical findings on outcomes.

1.4: Objectives

1.4.1: Main Objective

To Measure the actual effectiveness of terrorism through findings from empirical research on the tactical and strategic outcomes of uses of terrorism

1.4.2: Specific objectives

1. To measure the actual effectiveness of terrorism through findings from empirical research on the tactical outcomes uses of terrorism
2. To measure actual effectiveness of terrorism through findings from empirical research on the strategic outcomes of terrorism
3. To find tactical and strategic outcomes of terrorism from empirical research findings

1.4.3: Hypothesis

The more severe the tactical and strategic outcomes from empirical findings, the more effective the actual measure of terrorism.

1.5: Empirical analysis

1.5.1: Research Question

The following research question will be addressed while implementing empirical research

• Can findings from empirical research on tactical and strategic outcomes uses of terrorism measure actual effectiveness of terrorism?

Chapter Two: Literature Review

2.2: History of terrorism

Terrorism has a long histoy that has since gone through series of implementation with time.Nazala (2019) states that terrorism has had both radical and revolutionary transformation  However, scholars have failed to agree about a common definition of the tem causing emergence of more than 212 different definitions on the term (Nazala, R. M. (2019). The first terrorist attack took place in new York at the world Trade in i993 followed by Oklahoma attack in 1996(Nazala, 2019). The attacks were shifted to African mainly Eastern side in 1998 (Nazala, 2019). The radical groups changed from bomb to gas attacks in 1995 at Tokyo (Nazala, 2019). The al-Qaeda group brought a new form of terrorism in since the previous ones were led by Hosama (Nazala, 2019). Since then the groups have risen from religious based attacks and ideologies and were motivated to move for political agendas (Nazala, 2019). New groups emerged that includes Islamic states and Boko Haram which came with modern tactics and strategies all based on political ideology.

2.3: Terrorist Groups

Terrorist groups are made of radicals who employ actions that win the hearts of their constituency (Akcinaroglu & Tokdemir, 2018). Some use tactics that include taking advantage of the poor and religious strategies that make many young individuals join. Those radical groups with cross-border support build negative reputations on their constituency (Akcinaroglu & Tokdemir, 2018). According to research, majority of these groups get their support from politics. Some of the groups include ISIS, Islamic state and al-Qaeda (Hofmann, 2016). These groups origins are from a political terrorist leaders who are charismatic and clever (Hofmann, 2016). The members are willing to do, and go anywhere for the group’s cause (Akcinaroglu & Tokdemir, 2018). These groups use different tactics and strategies which prove very effective in causing mass destruction. Alliances are the main focus of terrorist groups which enable them to grow and thrive in these networks (Bacon, 2018).

2.4: Empirical analysis of tactics and strategies applied by terrorist groups

In the  history of terrorist attacks, terrorist groups have applied different tactics and strategies to accomplish their violent acts. Terrorist target cities more than rural area which makes leaders in urban areas form counterterrorism strategies  to combat the threat (Jore, 2019). Without plan to assess the usefulness of the countermeasures and complexity of urban centres, these cities continues to be the best target for terrorists (Jore, 2019). Some radical groups recruit children like Boko Haram in Nigeria due to their vulnerability and use them to conduct lethal suicide attacks (Akcinaroglu & Tokdemir, 2018). This tactic makes it impossible for security officers to identify them as a threat making it a force multiplier of projecting deadly force (Piazza, 2020). According to Abrahms & Gottfried (2016), a research conducted using ITERATE proved the investigation that terrorists tactics and strategies do cause a lot of ppressure to governements forcing them to comply to their demands

Chapter Three: Research Methodology

3.1: Materials 

Materials that will be useful to conduct this research include a GTD databases which are available forf free; SPSS software version and MS Excel.

3.2: Experimental Design

A longitudinal experiment design will be used in this research. The findings from empirical research will involve 98 variables obtained from GTD database within the terrorist events. Effectiveness of the two major outcomes will be recorded.

3.3: methods used

A quantitative method  of data collection will be used in;

1. Identification of tactical and strategies of terrorism outcomes from empirical research findings
2. Evaluation of measuring actual effectiveness of terrorism through findings from empirical research on the tactical outcomes uses of terrorism
3. measuring actual effectiveness of terrorism through findings from empirical research on the strategic outcomes of terrorism

3.3.1: sampling

Samples of data from GTD database will be downloaded from the internet in their websites. The data will include all terrorist tactics and strategic outcomes that were employed  from 1970 to 2020 of the entire world. The database has 98 wide varieties of variables which makes it vital and useful in this research question.

3.3.2: sampling method

A purposive sampling method will be used to where only data on strategies and tactical outcomes will be extracted from the GTD database because they are the main focus in this research.

3.3.3: Sample Size

The sample size will involve 98, 855 terrorist events that took place across the world at different states and territories.

3.4: Data analysis

Data drawn from GTD will be subjected to statistical analysis using SPSS software version 2010.  After downloading it will be exported to MS excel software version 2010 for storage. Using the data from GTD, it will be easy to find information on tactics and strategic outcomes from the events. The excel software will help to store and organize the data for easy importation. It will be grouped into different clusters and the final copy imported to SPSS software for analysis. The data will need to be normalized if it when found not to be normal.  Graphs mean average, median, t-tests and P-value will be tasted make the analysis simple. The average and variance will be part of the tests. Variance will help tell how the data has spread across the average.

Proposal plan

BUDGET

References

Piazza, J. A. (2020). Suicide Attacks and Hard Targets: An Empirical Examination. Defence and Peace Economics, 31(2), 142-159. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/10242694.2018.1509257?casa_token=wyjwi6nMwioAAAAA:-SjIua6lXWh-C7KgzGQYVT7bJegv5dB00ZAkQOHmolVU807AagA8g55ef1ocv6gVSyZfE-2cNrELzSqzhA

Hofmann, D. C. (2016). The influence of charismatic authority on operational strategies and attack outcomes of terrorist groups. Journal of Strategic Security, 9(2), 14-44. https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1486&context=jss

Koehler-Derrick, G., & Milton, D. J. (2019). Choose your weapon: The impact of strategic considerations and resource constraints on terrorist group weapon selection. Terrorism and Political Violence, 31(5), 909-928. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09546553.2017.1293533?casa_token=L3ceAqKaZWoAAAAA:yAb_973cgbJI1IHvmX0F71XvMtZNNI-op8Orro45znOrygp4hBxp9ugwDRT_ps2KOrk5iQfjuHvSIaBHNQ

Mroszczyk, J. (2019). To die or to kill? An analysis of suicide attack lethality. Terrorism and political violence, 31(2), 346-366. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09546553.2016.1228632?casa_token=6qzl9TqCjZUAAAAA:Fyn2IvKS5nAPqq6STrs68MgpvvnMWKEAA5hEA-jWiCwewJOSOfemGSXd9u3EfRvFpspC1lsJzjXcj11gzg

Jore, S. H. (2019). Ontological and epistemological challenges of measuring the effectiveness of urban counterterrorism measures. Security Journal, 1-16. https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1057/s41284-019-00221-6.pdf

Berkebile, R. E. (2017). What is domestic terrorism? A method for classifying events from the global terrorism database. Terrorism and political violence, 29(1), 1-26. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09546553.2014.985378?casa_token=24wyCXd5i0MAAAAA:JYF5r1FHo2ZCx9vCqQrH6tapXEOkSx-pc4hYXgmkvro1ml1r0Z7P95DVi9omZxY4GBUf0_uYEUbBiVlK9g

Nazala, R. M. (2019). New Terrorism: What Can the History of Terrorism Contribute?. Jurnal Hubungan Internasional, 8(1), 113-120. https://www.knc.edu.in/covid19/Political_Science/2nd_year/neena_19_3_2020.pdf

Kis-Katos, K., Liebert, H., & Schulze, G. G. (2011). On the origin of domestic and international terrorism. European Journal of Political Economy, 27, S17-S36. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/47898/1/638228883.pdf

Bacon, T. (2018). Is the Enemy of My Enemy My Friend? How Terrorist Groups Select Partners. Security Studies, 27(3), 345-378. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09636412.2017.1416813?casa_token=imkG46p7hf4AAAAA:d1BO2VTogvWfL2bFzNVirGb7MAK5DAQS-NPdDkir3oITe_bMUl5GxbMma7_mBOCirNmSVwlE4K3HkBe2WQ

Akcinaroglu, S., & Tokdemir, E. (2018). To instill fear or love: Terrorist groups and the strategy of building reputation. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 35(4), 355-377. http://repository.bilkent.edu.tr/bitstream/handle/11693/50585/To_instill_fear_or_love_Terrorist_groups_and_the_strategy_of_building_reputation.pdf?sequence=1

Abrahms, M., & Gottfried, M. S. (2016). Does terrorism pay? An empirical analysis. Terrorism and Political Violence, 28(1), 72-89. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09546553.2013.879057?casa_token=6WyEjKM65DgAAAAA:xuMLK2JbC5fklKHskJinzHd4_gW0n9-1NOmm4Fg51m3tL8WElzjtIzUkiNacOJrHyyBCilYZkji4nSsb5g

APPENDICES